vido wrote:That one bullet point in your notes regarding heroic strike really confused me xD thanks for explaining it though. I looked at that bit in Armilius' guide and it still omits the the threat boost by making your auto hit a yellow, would be cool to see where it ends up if you add that correction.
By converting the white hit to a yellow hit it's the same as adding 3% hit and it removes the possibility of a glancing blow.
Your TPS from auto attack is the DPS shown in the character sheet multiplied by armor reduction, hit chance, dodge chance, parry chance, block chance, crit and glancing blow chance times glancing blow damage reduction.
Where C = glancing chance (0.4); R = glancing reduction (0.7 with 300 weapon skill); TM is threat modifier:
We need to make a couple formulas first. Subtract the chance to get a miss, dodge, parry or glancing blow, this leaves us with the chance to get a hit or crit.
1 - miss - dodge - parry - block - C = chance to get a hit or crit
Now we can multiply this by our DPS and TM to get the threat from hits and crits,
DPS * TM * (1 - miss - dodge - parry - block - C) = Threat from hits and crits
Now let's get the threat from glancing blows,
DPS * TM * (C * R) = threat from glancing blows
^ is simple enough, chance to get a glancing blow, times the damage reduction
Same for block,
DPS * TM * (BlockChance * (BlockValue/AverageDamage)) = threat from blocked attacks
So the formula for threat from white attacks is:
TM * DPS * (1 - miss - dodge - parry - C) + TM * DPS * (C * R)
For the yellow attacks it's a bit simpler as there are no glancing blows,
TM * DPS * (1 - (miss + 0.03) - dodge - parry)
Remember that we have a 5% chance to miss on yellow attacks instead of 8%, that is why we add 0.03 to the miss chance.
Now we want a factor for the difference between the two, let's call that X,
X * [TM * DPS * (1 - miss - dodge - parry - C) + TM * DPS * C * R] = TM * DPS * (1 - (miss - 0.03) - dodge - parry)
X * TM * DPS * [((1 - miss - dodge - parry) - C) + C * R] = TM * DPS * ((1 - miss - dodge - parry) + 0.03)
We can drop the (TM * DPS) because it's a common factor on both sides,
X * [((1 - miss - dodge - parry) - C) + C * R] = (1 - miss - dodge - parry) + 0.03
To make things a bit simpler, let's say that (1 - miss - dodge - parry) = A,
X * (A - C + C*R) = A + 0.03
X = (A + 0.03) / (A - C + C*R)
Now let's put the formula for A back in,
X = (1 - miss - dodge - parry + 0.03) / (1 - miss - dodge - parry - C + C*R)
I forgot to include block but that is easy, it's just part of that 'A' formula so really A should be,
A = (1 - miss - dodge - parry - (block chance * (boss block value / (average white damage * armor reduction)))
I'm not sure what the correct values are for all those variables, Oto says dodge, parry and block chance are 0.065.
I also didn't add crit chance and crit damage increase into the formula but it shouldn't change anything unless you are at the soft crit cap while tanking... with a one-hander...
Ultimately you are looking at ~22% threat increase just from converting it from a white attack to a yellow. Results are much lower if you have weapon skill.
tl;dr:
Here's your formulas, go spreadsheet:
A = (1 - miss - dodge - parry - (block chance * (boss block value / (average white damage * armor reduction)))
X = (A + 0.03) / (A - glancing blow chance + glancing blow chance * glancing blow damage modifier)