Spell Hit vs Spell Crit: The argument is over.

[Numi]

All you really need is a ballpark figure of how much SP to value hit/crit, which you can get from the theorycraft addon.

For me, this number is vastly of, like I mean, not even remotely close. It has permanently showed hit and crit having the exact same scaling, which is a HUGE error, don't rely on theorycraft for your scaling.

[Rylox]

Does anyone know for sure if it's 1 or 2 roll system?
Like does it roll crit at the same time as hit/resist or will it only roll for crit after hit/resist?

[Botmaster5]

its a 2 roll system
1 roll is for hit, miss/resist
1 roll is for crit, regardless of hit/miss

[diogenes]

My 3 regular use trinkets are ToEP, Reed, and Eye

Fully buffed to the tits (world buffs, full raid consumables), I use ToEP and Reed
Raid buffed, I use ToEP and Eye
5-mans and solo I use ToEP and Reed

Honestly, i dont think for any obtainable value of spellpower is eye of the beast is worth using over reed. Additionally, ToEP isn't practically worth using over reed. With perfect ToEP uptime, ToEP is only worth 29.1666 (ish) spell damage, and that is if you are using it perfectly. There are some fights where the downtime won't interfere (using ToEP to dps in c'thun stomache or during vunlerability is obviously superior) and you can make the argument that using it on enrage bosses like Chromag and Huhu makes it better, but in terms of practical raw dps, not ToEP (and I'm pretty sure not ZHC either) is worth using over reed in the majority of fights.

I'm open to being wrong about this however.

[diogenes]

All you really need is a ballpark figure of how much SP to value hit/crit, which you can get from the theorycraft addon.

For me, this number is vastly of, like I mean, not even remotely close. It has permanently showed hit and crit having the exact same scaling, which is a HUGE error, don't rely on theorycraft for your scaling.

I haven't used the addon, but I can tell you exactly why that happens. First, unless you have an absurd amount of spellpower (an amount that isn't possible to obtain even in naxx gear) its not going to be much of a difference on a conversion of spellpower to crit/hit and vice versa. Second, the reason why that happens is because when you look at spellpower to hit or spell power to crit, the values are actually identical. Hit doesn't actually "look better" than crit until you consider all three, and then you're dealing with 3 values. So there's 2 possible things going on here.

I doubt that the scripts you can write, can solve multiple variable equations like that. Remember, everytime you change your hit/spellpower/crit it is going to effect all three. So when you just look at hit to spell power and crit to spell power, you're going to come up with identical numbers. If it is possible for the scripts to solve multivariable equations, then its likely that for your gear, the difference isn't much.

I mean just look at the numbers given by the original poster. a 1% change in hit over crit manages a total increase of about 0.33%. When you start converting that kind of a value to spell power, the amount is going to be very very small. For example the difference of hit = 10 spell power and crit = 9 spell power is 11%. We're talking a difference of like 1 hit = 10 spell power and 1 crit = 9.967 (ish) spell power. Those values are incredibly close together, and are supported by what the original poster has said.

[Botmaster5]

I'm open to being wrong about this however.

The thing about ToEP is its controlled burst. Locks already have a problem with the threat ceiling as it is. If threat isnt a problem for the fight, then you save it for your PI. And if you arent getting PI from a priest, then my friend, you have not lived.

..but i digress, we are far from topic.

Numi, Diogenes, Setup... the theoretical value of SP to Hit and SP to Crit is varied based on currently equiped hit and crit, we can all agree on that, there is no hard and fast number.

I tried out theorycraft addon, and found it lacking. Its not accurate at all, ballparkish at best

[diogenes]

Yea if your priest is stacking PI with your ToEP then it is going to be significantly more valuable (I'm still confident you need to use it on cd for it to be worth however.)

Of course, anyone who knows anything about this stuff is going to agree that hit/crit/spellpower are dependant upon each other. While I haven't used this theorycraft addon, your own numbers show how close hit and crit are together; therefore, I expect the addon to give values of hit/crit that are also very close together. If that is not the case, I do not want to defend this addon (as I have never used it), but you can't use the numbers you used to justify hit's "superiority" and then expect the spell power conversion to hit to be even 1 full spell damage ahead of the spell power conversion to crit.

[Wosser]

So...

As a very raw calculation, ToeP would give an average of 29,166 spelldmg IF it comes off cooldown the second the bossfight ends, the longer it is on cd at the end of a fight, the higher its uptime was during it and the better is was in general, so i would prefer ToeP over Reed.

For the stat values: If you have the general formula for your dps (dunno if the one i posted somewhere in this thread is completely correct), the hardest thing is probably finding the gradient, so the derivations to spellldmg, hit and crit respectively. Then you just insert your stats and get the proportions to each other. Hope my english doesn't suck too much >.<

[Guybrush]

As a very raw calculation, ToeP would give an average of 29,166 spelldmg IF it comes off cooldown the second the bossfight ends, the longer it is on cd at the end of a fight, the higher its uptime was during it and the better is was in general, so i would prefer ToeP over Reed.

That's roughly what I got as well, ToEP equals 30.71 sp for a 90 second fight with my gear. So even if the fight lasts the exact duration of the trinket cooldown, its still better than the reed.

Its always nice to carry around at least one burst trinket anyway, even if just for trash.
Here's how much extra damage you get for using each one, at 15% crit 600 sp:

Zandalarian Hero Charm: 1,217.36
Talisman of Ephemeral Power: 1,105.74
Hazza'rah's Charm of Destruction: 851.09
Draconic Infused Emblem: 631.85

[diogenes]

So...

As a very raw calculation, ToeP would give an average of 29,166 spelldmg IF it comes off cooldown the second the bossfight ends, the longer it is on cd at the end of a fight, the higher its uptime was during it and the better is was in general, so i would prefer ToeP over Reed.

Sure, but now you're talking about variables you can't control. If you mean that sometimes ToEP is going to be better than that average, I'm not going to dispute that, but if you're suggesting that its never going to preform under that "raw" calculation, I'm just going to disagree with you. Due to it's relatively short CD ToEP isn't going to be the kind of thing you can just not use and not be penalized. If there is a chance of something that is going to prevent your chain casting during those 15 seconds--even for one second--you're going to miss out on at least one shadowbolt cast (possibly 2 or 3) and then it suddenly has significantly less uptime.

Sure, it would be wise not to pop it directly before such a situation arises, but while you're not losing as much uptime when you use it inteligently, you're still losing uptime and it is preforming worse than the "raw calculation." My point is simply that its not the greatest choice for all fights (I might even be inclined to argue the majority of fights where progression actually matters) and all we can go off with things like this are averages. If you'd like to do a more indepth calculation where you'd calculate the average length of each boss fight and the average probability that your uptime could be interrupted be my guest.

Due to how difficult it would be to calculate the probability of such things, personally I prefer to play it safe. However, I definitely see the merit in using ToEP on certain boss fights (but I believe I originally said that).

For the stat values: If you have the general formula for your dps (dunno if the one i posted somewhere in this thread is completely correct), the hardest thing is probably finding the gradient, so the derivations to spellldmg, hit and crit respectively. Then you just insert your stats and get the proportions to each other. Hope my english doesn't suck too much >.<

Honestly, you don't need to do that at all. You're making this much more complicated than it is. For simplicity sake I'm going to ignore mana and lifetap time and its benefit from spell power (though that isn't all that complicated to figure out either I just want to go to bed).

Since our damage is literally spamming shadowbolt as much as possible, all we need to know is the damage formula for shadowbolt:

where
s= spelldamage
h= hit
c= crit

(481.5+3*s/3.5)*h*c=damage

When we want to see how much of an increase in damage hit/crit is going to give us literally all we need to do is plug in our hit/crit values and then add one to each value one at a time and see the extra damage that is gained. Once we do that, we can easily make a good estimation on how much damage will be added.

Now sure, I'm ignoring a lot of variables in this such as CoS, Shadow weaving, DS, ect. But since those values are just static modifiers it will apply evenly across the board (thank god for PEMDAS).

Really, you don't need to calculate 1k shadowbolts to see how much of a benefit that is (and after all that's quite an arbitrary number). And you don't have to actually graph an equation in 4 dimensional space. It's much simpler and easier just to look at one cast and see how much average damage the increase will be.