PvP Mechanic: Hit Chance

[Youfie]

Blizzard doesn't actually state the formula for spell hit though, we're just given a table of miss rates within a certain level ramge. It's not reasonable to extrapolate this out to level differences of 20,30,40+. The level 29 mage in the video above has a 50% spell hit rate over 20 casts vs level 60s. This isn't an enormous sample size but it's enough to rule out of the idea that low levels had effectively 1% chance to land spells on level 60s.

The way I see it, Blizzard clearly gives away the formula. 4% base miss, +1% per level until 2 level difference. Then +7% for each subsequent level against players, 11% versus monsters. Pretty straightforward.

Opposing a video with such a small sample size to that kind of evidence is rather far-fetched in my opinion.

I have to admit the probability to get that much spells not resisted when each of them is supposed to have a 99% Miss Rate is quite low though, but I'd rather take Blizzard's Word over a sample that size. I mean, crit happens, non-resisted spells happen too. You can always find videos with a chain of improbable events happening right after each other.

A conclusion that could be drawn from this video and that I'd find more plausible would be something like maybe the Miss Chance being caped at 99% is something that was computed by Blizzard before the +Hit Chance was added.

So if this Mage had +10% Hit with the Arcane Talent or something, what happens in the video would be a little less unlikely to happen (11% Hit Chance).

But still, the OP probably got *very* lucky with all his spells, unless there are dozens of other videos with better sample size showing low level players hitting their target that much!

[Uzephi]

Blizzard doesn't actually state the formula for spell hit though, we're just given a table of miss rates within a certain level ramge. It's not reasonable to extrapolate this out to level differences of 20,30,40+. The level 29 mage in the video above has a 50% spell hit rate over 20 casts vs level 60s. This isn't an enormous sample size but it's enough to rule out of the idea that low levels had effectively 1% chance to land spells on level 60s.

how is giving the way the game reacts to miss chance not stating the formula for spell hit? isn't it obvious if it doesn't miss, it will hit? He even explains resists on binary and other spells as well.

You read the linked post he goes into further detail on how the game rolls if the spell would be a hit or miss and also gives away the formula would continue +11% miss for mobs and +7% miss for players indefinitely until the 99% miss cap by stating etc.

99% cap because the game rolls a number between 0 and 1. With miss being maxed out on the number scale of 0.99, if the game rolled a 0.00 it would be a hit.

[Marisi]

The way I see it, Blizzard clearly gives away the formula. 4% base miss, +1% per level until 2 level difference. Then +7% for each subsequent level against players, 11% versus monsters. Pretty straightforward.

This isn't really giving away anything beyond the noteworthy fact that the spell hit formula isn't a linear function. It could very well be a piecewise function that caps or levels out after a certain miss threshold to normalize the spell hit rating for player grey-cons.

Opposing a video with such a small sample size to that kind of evidence is rather far-fetched in my opinion.

I have to admit the probability to get that much spells not resisted when each of them is supposed to have a 99% Miss Rate is quite low though, but I'd rather take Blizzard's Word over a sample that size. I mean, crit happens, non-resisted spells happen too. You can always find videos with a chain of improbable events happening right after each other.

You're underestimating just how unfathomably unlikely what you're suggesting is. Even with a sample size of 'only' 20, we can say with a 99% confidence level that an observed 50% hit rate means this mage should have an actual hit rate somewhere between 21.2% to 78.8%. This precludes your theory that Arcane Focus is somehow bugged, letting alone that the talent only applies to Arcane spells. This is also ignoring that the 29 priest in the same video lands 2 SW:Pains and several Mind Flays.

https://www.mccallum-layton.co.uk/tools ... calculator

Anyways, some more cursory evidence:
https://youtu.be/jt5BepzK7oM?t=2m40s Level 39 hunter freezing trapping level 60 rogue. He would have a 1% spell hit chance if we extrapolate miss chance linearly for all level differences greater than 2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOjJY29HA1I lvl 45-48 shadow priest murdering level 60s with nowhere near the 'expected' ~70-98% resist rate.

I'm sure there's more and better videos if someone cba to look hard enough. I definitely remember that low level casters weren't worthless in retail pvp though, the people in this thread aren't crazy.

[Youfie]

Indeed, your videos definitely tend to show that there was another "part" of the formula though, or at least something that wasn't explicitly told by Blizzard's post.

My theory regarding the +Hit Talent being applied after the 99% Miss Cap still stands, since Priests also have a +10% Hit Talent in their tree, just like Hunter Traps. But at this point we're kinda speculating.

I'd like to know if there are any similar videos with say, a Warlock being able to land non-Affliction spells (since there is a Talent for them too) successfully in similar situations.