2 Peices of T2 and Rivendare already?

[Tekko]

Yeah I was gonna say you can just plug the numbers into the little thing towards the bottom and it will give you the 95% answer as well. haha

Out of interest, with your 95% drop rate in 300 runs, lets say you have now killed him 200 times with no mount drops. Would you still be thinking there is a 95% chance that it would still drop within 300 runs?

Nope, at that point you re-do the calculation for just the last 100 remaining runs, which would be:

1-(1-.01)^100 = ~0.63 = ~ 63%

So your odds of getting it by kill 300 would drop to 63% in this scenario

and that's why I will never use or rate drop chance probability in WoW

You give yourself a % at the beginning, but for each run you do, it decreases, making it all rather pointless.

Also to throw a further spanner into the works, what about the times it does drop, but the dungeon isn't completed, so you never know (loot tables are decided at the beginning of a created instance).

[Fleming]

and that's why I will never use or rate drop chance probability in WoW

You give yourself a % at the beginning, but for each run you do, it decreases, making it all rather pointless.

Your likelihood of getting the mount doesn't actually change though; you're just essentially recalculating a new probability after each kill. First it's the odds of getting it in the next 300 kills, then if you don't get it you're recalculating the odds of getting it in the next 299 kills, not the next 300. Because they are independent events, the conditional probability of getting it on kill X given that you've already killed it and not got the drop a bunch of times is the same as if you've never killed it before.

I get how it can seem kind of pointless, but the numbers are still accurate.

Also this is nothing specific to WoW either, this all holds for any calculation of independent events.

[Fleming]

Also to throw a further spanner into the works, what about the times it does drop, but the dungeon isn't completed, so you never know (loot tables are decided at the beginning of a created instance).

Still wouldn't change the numbers

[Youfie]

and that's why I will never use or rate drop chance probability in WoW

You give yourself a % at the beginning, but for each run you do, it decreases, making it all rather pointless.

Your likelihood of getting the mount doesn't actually change though; you're just essentially recalculating a new probability after each kill. First it's the odds of getting it in the next 300 kills, then if you don't get it you're recalculating the odds of getting it in the next 299 kills, not the next 300. Because they are independent events, the conditional probability of getting it on kill X given that you've already killed it and not got the drop a bunch of times is the same as if you've never killed it before.

I get how it can seem kind of pointless, but the numbers are still accurate.

Also this is nothing specific to WoW either, this all holds for any calculation of independent events.

This.
The first post about the dropchance decreasing..