Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Dreez » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:13 pm

smilkovpetko wrote:and yes you need 100 kills in order to see legendary drop once someone have it.
if someone got it twice , then you will wait for another 100 kills.

and this is server worldwide database , (which mean legendary droprate are not attached on you) but on overall server kills.

haha what a bullshit
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by smilkovpetko » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:14 pm

Dreez wrote:nice edit on the "this was math for 1% dropchance"

you're still doing your best of holding up your image as re... well not gonna go deeper on that topic xD


http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop ... obability/

Your Chance Over Multiple Attempts Increases

Even though your chance on each single attempt always remains the same, the probability of getting your drop over the course of multiple attempts increases. I know at first this sounds like crazy talk that contradicts what we just discussed, so another example is in order:

We're flipping our coin again. We know that we have a 50% chance of getting heads on any given toss, and it doesn't matter at all what results we got before. But I think we can all agree that if we flip a coin 100 times it's very, very likely that we'll get heads at least one of those times. The chance on the first toss is 50%, and on the 42nd toss it's 50%, and on the 100th toss it's 50%. But over the course of 100 tosses, the probability of getting heads is way more than 50%. (In fact, the chance is 99.999999999999999999999999999921% that we'll get heads at least once.)

So the more often we down a boss, the more likely we are to see the loot that we want. Instinctively we all know this, that's why we keep going back and keep going back, and eventually our persistence is rewarded. Sometimes you'll get lucky, and sometimes you'll get unlucky, and the more you try the better your odds are overall. But the chance will never be 100%. It's never guaranteed.

educate before you insult me.
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Dreez » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:17 pm

oh really? wow you are smart

Dreez wrote:
smilkovpetko wrote:You need to kill 151.19 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (3%)!

http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=18563

3% droprate chance.

average times killed per drop.

did anyone say anything else?




this part here is the crap
smilkovpetko wrote:strange how everyone trying to say math

https://forum.nostalrius.org/viewtopic. ... 10#p241041

i already posted , if the item droprate is 3% , which are legendary drops , in order to have them drop you need to kill average of 100 times the same boss (this can be variate and drop sometime early) .

0.03 is not 0.03 when you come next time , this chance grows up each time you kill that boss.


for a 3% drop chance, the item drops every 33.3.. runs not every 100 runs


smilkovpetko wrote:and yes you need 100 kills in order to see legendary drop once someone have it.
if someone got it twice , then you will wait for another 100 kills.

and this is server worldwide database , (which mean legendary droprate are not attached on you) but on overall server kills.


honestly just lol
can't get over that one
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by smilkovpetko » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:20 pm

Dreez wrote:oh really? wow you are smart

Dreez wrote:
smilkovpetko wrote:You need to kill 151.19 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (3%)!

http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=18563

3% droprate chance.

average times killed per drop.

did anyone say anything else?




this part here is the crap
smilkovpetko wrote:strange how everyone trying to say math

https://forum.nostalrius.org/viewtopic. ... 10#p241041

i already posted , if the item droprate is 3% , which are legendary drops , in order to have them drop you need to kill average of 100 times the same boss (this can be variate and drop sometime early) .

0.03 is not 0.03 when you come next time , this chance grows up each time you kill that boss.


for a 3% drop chance, the item drops every 33.3.. runs not every 100 runs


smilkovpetko wrote:and yes you need 100 kills in order to see legendary drop once someone have it.
if someone got it twice , then you will wait for another 100 kills.

and this is server worldwide database , (which mean legendary droprate are not attached on you) but on overall server kills.


honestly just lol
can't get over that one


so you are gonna contradict wowwiki ?

http://wowwiki.wikia.com/wiki/Drop_rate
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Dreez » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:23 pm

smilkovpetko wrote:
so you are gonna contradict wowwiki ?

http://wowwiki.wikia.com/wiki/Drop_rate

funny how you still don't get it

fyi the math behind this here:
another 1% (on average) of people who grind this drop will still not get it after 458 kills.

is 0.99^458
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by smilkovpetko » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:27 pm

Dreez wrote:
smilkovpetko wrote:
so you are gonna contradict wowwiki ?

http://wowwiki.wikia.com/wiki/Drop_rate

funny how you still don't get it

fyi the math behind this here:
another 1% (on average) of people who grind this drop will still not get it after 458 kills.

is 0.99^458


http://ah-web.at/mobs.php?act=true#erg
You need to kill 458.21 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (1%)!

You need to kill 151.19 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (3%)!

by Dreez
for a 3% drop chance, the item drops every 33.3.. runs not every 100 runs
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Lowhealth » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:35 pm

http://ah-web.at/mobs.php?act=true#erg
You need to kill 458.21 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (1%)!

You need to kill 151.19 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (3%)!

You literally just applied the same math I did, only with the difference that I did not calculate for the chance of 1 binding dropping, but an event that involves both bindings AND the eye of sulfuras dropping in the exact same run of molten core. That being sad I really dont understand what you are arguing against or for here. And at this point I am pretty sure you dont even know yourself.
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Dreez » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:36 pm

smilkovpetko wrote:
Dreez wrote:
smilkovpetko wrote:
so you are gonna contradict wowwiki ?

http://wowwiki.wikia.com/wiki/Drop_rate

funny how you still don't get it

fyi the math behind this here:
another 1% (on average) of people who grind this drop will still not get it after 458 kills.

is 0.99^458


http://ah-web.at/mobs.php?act=true#erg
You need to kill 458.21 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (1%)!

You need to kill 151.19 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (3%)!

by Dreez
for a 3% drop chance, the item drops every 33.3.. runs not every 100 runs

it by average still drops every 33.3 runs, however as you yourself said: after 151.19 runs there's a 1% chance the item didn't drop yet.
this doesn't contradict each other

smilkovpetko wrote:and do you have info how many people grind this drop in server to prove your % or how many of the same people in guild grind this drop?


it doesn't matter whether there's 1 MC raid a week or 200000 MC raids a week on a server

here's a short version of how loot tables work:
The moment the instance is created (when someone enters it) the bosses "spawn" and the loot is being rolled.
Every time you open an MC instance, there's a 3% chance garr has a binding on him.
The overall amount of instances does not matter at all
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by smilkovpetko » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:40 pm

Lowhealth wrote:http://ah-web.at/mobs.php?act=true#erg
You need to kill 458.21 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (1%)!

You need to kill 151.19 mobs to have a 99% chance for this droprate (3%)!

You literally just applied the same math I did, only with the difference that I did not calculate for the chance of 1 binding dropping, but an event that involves both bindings AND the eye of sulfuras dropping in the exact same run of molten core. That being sad I really dont understand what you are arguing against or for here. And at this point I am pretty sure you dont even know yourself.


You need 453.57 kills average for all of the 3, but this is serverwide since legendary drops are not attached to individual , but on server kills overall .

which mean each 453 (average) you will have all of those 3 .
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Dreez » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:54 pm

smilkovpetko wrote:
You need 453.57 kills average for all of the 3, but this is serverwide since legendary drops are not attached to individual , but on server kills overall .

which mean each 453 (average) you will have all of those 3 .

drop chances aren't attached to kills at all
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