Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Lowhealth » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:55 pm

smilkovpetko wrote:You need 453.57 kills average for all of the 3, but this is serverwide since legendary drops are not attached to individual , but on server kills overall .

which mean each 453 (average) you will have all of those 3 .


WTF man, you cant just add up 151*3 and expect that to be the number. I am getting really tired of this but I'm gonna make on final attempt to make even YOU understand this.

If you had a dice with 100 sides on it and you rolled it, there would be a 3% chance for you to roll a 98,99 or 100.
Now increase the number of dices to 3. you can go on now and roll each of them so many times until the 3% success kicks in and you will end up having 3 dices laying in front of you, each of them showing a 98,99 or 100. And thats what you are doing with the numbers you are presenting right now, which is completely fine, but not the situation we are looking at here. If you went to molten core 450 times I agree with you that you would statistically end up with 2 bindings and 1 eye of sulfuras. So far so good.

Now to the part that you dont seem to understand. If you wanted to "recreate" this run what you had to do is not rolling the dice over and over until you get your Result. INSTEAD this run represents the odds of you picking up those 3 dice all at ONCE, rolling them ONCE, and end up having each of them show a 98,99 or 100. The odds of THAT actually happening are as I mentioned earlier 0.0027%. Now go ahead and put that into you fancy little calculator and make it calculate the 99.9% chance and you will realize, that, given that you were blindfolded while rolling your dice, you would have to make about 260000 attempts in order to be able to stand up, leave the room, and be confident that you got your roll somewhere along the way because you would know that there is only a 0.01% chance of you being wrong about claiming that you managed to pull of the roll.

Have a nice day.
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by smilkovpetko » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:59 pm

this is serverwide since legendary drops are not attached to individual


your dice fails right there ^ .
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Dish » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:01 pm

Smilkov you're making an absolute fool of yourself here, not getting the grasp of basic probability calculations. Just stop.
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Dreez » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:08 pm

Dish wrote:Smilkov you're making an absolute fool of yourself here, not getting the grasp of basic probability calculations. Just stop.

damn, don't tell him to stop, it's getting funnier over time
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Lowhealth » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:13 pm

smilkovpetko wrote:
this is serverwide since legendary drops are not attached to individual


your dice fails right there ^ .


... It is NOT serverwide. Its a simple Random Number Generator that is doing nothing but generating a random number based on the 3% chance of a critical success. Do you have any Idea how difficult it would be to have the server track EVERY single loot piece ever dropped from any mob that was ever killed and factor that into the calculations ?! Nobody in their right mind would ever attempt to do something so stupid if the solution from a devs perspectiv is sooo much simpler. The server does NOT record the loot and keep them in a serverwide database to calculate the chance of items dropping, and there has never been any evidence or bluepost or statement or whatever mentioning the kind of system that you are trying to convince us of here. You are literally pulling it out of your ass because you think thats how it works, and you are in so much denial and so insanely stubborn about it that you refuse to back down from this completely ridiculous standpoint. You were never in a position to even start participating in the discussion of this thread, please come back once you got your facts right.
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Robotron » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:30 pm

Dish wrote:Smilkov you're making an absolute fool of yourself here, not getting the grasp of basic probability calculations. Just stop.

We can only expect so much from someone who genuinely believes a non-Holy Paladin spec is viable in Vanilla endgame.
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by smilkovpetko » Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:36 pm

Robotron wrote:
Dish wrote:Smilkov you're making an absolute fool of yourself here, not getting the grasp of basic probability calculations. Just stop.

We can only expect so much from someone who genuinely believes a non-Holy Paladin spec is viable in Vanilla endgame.


https://scontent-vie1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hp ... 8017_o.jpg

don't touch something that will bite you. this isn't endgame?
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Salty McSalt » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:03 pm

Lowhealth wrote:While you guys are correct with the math on the chance of both bindings dropping in one raid you are forgetting about the fact that the got an eye of sulfuras on top of that.

DAFUQ

ESSENCE OF FIRELORD =/= EYE OF SULFURAS

essence of firelord is quest item for thunderfury once you have both bindings and is 100% drop chance, christ sake
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by Robotron » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:13 pm

smilkovpetko wrote:
Robotron wrote:
Dish wrote:Smilkov you're making an absolute fool of yourself here, not getting the grasp of basic probability calculations. Just stop.

We can only expect so much from someone who genuinely believes a non-Holy Paladin spec is viable in Vanilla endgame.


https://scontent-vie1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hp ... 8017_o.jpg

don't touch something that will bite you. this isn't endgame?

Feenix counts for jack fucking shit, kid.
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Re: Forget DFT, I'm salty over this Mythril run.

by smilkovpetko » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:33 pm

Robotron wrote:Feenix counts for jack fucking shit, kid.


and nost counts right ?

what's the difference ?
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