2 Peices of T2 and Rivendare already?

[Tekko]

I don't think you know how percentages work.

There is always a 1% chance that it will drop. The chance to drop doesn't increase.

Just because you run 100 strat runs, does not mean that it will drop in one of them.

I don't think you understand probability. The math I did is for independent events, meaning the odds ARE 1% for each kill in the math I just did.

Let me show you a link if you don't believe me

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probabil ... ndent.html

Trust me - I've taken college level courses in math/statistics. My math here is right.

You're wrong.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop ... obability/

If you think killing Baron 300 times will give you a 95% drop chance of the mount, you're gonna have a bad time.

[Fleming]

I don't think you know how percentages work.

There is always a 1% chance that it will drop. The chance to drop doesn't increase.

Just because you run 100 strat runs, does not mean that it will drop in one of them.

I don't think you understand probability. The math I did is for independent events, meaning the odds ARE 1% for each kill in the math I just did.

Let me show you a link if you don't believe me

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probabil ... ndent.html

Trust me - I've taken college level courses in math/statistics. My math here is right.

You're wrong.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop ... obability/

This link literally proves me right, I used the exact formula given...

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

[Tekko]

This link literally proves me right, I used the exact formula given...

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

Read it all.

Maybe I should have, I was focusing on one paragraph haha.

"Your Chance on Each Attempt is the Same

If your mount has a 1% chance of dropping, it will always be 1% on every single attempt. The Gambler's Fallacy trap that many fall into is assuming that previous results will change future results -- or put in WoW terms, "I've run this 50 times, so it must be really likely to drop now!" And it really feels like it should be that way. But it's not any more likely on the 50th kill or the 500th kill, it's still 1%. Every. Single. Time.

As an example, let's say you're flipping a coin. There's a 50% chance that it lands heads. You flip and get tails. Next time the chance is still 50%. Tails again. The next chance is still 50%. The past results don't affect the chance of the next result. That's randomness for you."

[Fleming]

This link literally proves me right, I used the exact formula given...

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

Read it all.

Maybe I should have, I was focusing on one paragraph haha.

Yeah I was gonna say you can just plug the numbers into the little thing towards the bottom and it will give you the 95% answer as well. haha

[Jackyy]

Do you guys really argue about RNG based on some phanrasy stats?

[Twist]

He just read the first part

[Tekko]

Do you guys really argue about RNG based on some phanrasy stats?

A discussion is not an argument.

[sloasdaylight]

Do you guys really argue about RNG based on some phanrasy stats?

A discussion is not an argument.

It is to a guy who tried to take over Alliance World chat and implement his own rules for behavior in it.

[Tekko]

Yeah I was gonna say you can just plug the numbers into the little thing towards the bottom and it will give you the 95% answer as well. haha

Out of interest, with your 95% drop rate in 300 runs, lets say you have now killed him 200 times with no mount drops. Would you still be thinking there is a 95% chance that it would still drop within 300 runs?

[Fleming]

Yeah I was gonna say you can just plug the numbers into the little thing towards the bottom and it will give you the 95% answer as well. haha

Out of interest, with your 95% drop rate in 300 runs, lets say you have now killed him 200 times with no mount drops. Would you still be thinking there is a 95% chance that it would still drop within 300 runs?

Nope, at that point you re-do the calculation for just the last 100 remaining runs, which would be:

1-(1-.01)^100 = ~0.63 = ~ 63%

So your odds of getting it by kill 300 would drop to 63% in this scenario