Ironfoe

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Ironfoe

by Arucado » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:57 am

How many tries does it got to drop?

I've done Emperor like 20-30 times nothing yet to see

http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=11684 (says 2%, so i think 60 trys would be enough)
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Re: Ironfoe

by Dreez » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:14 pm

2% drop chance = by averagy it drops every 50th run

the chance that it doesn't drop for X runs in a row still is quite high:

50 runs (0.98^50 = 0.364 -->): 36.4% chance
100 runs: 13.2 % chance
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Re: Ironfoe

by Mopar » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:19 pm

If the probability that it will drop on a single run is 2%, then:

Probability to drop in 20 runs is 33.2%
Probability to drop in 30 runs is 45.5%
Probability to drop in 60 runs is 70.2%
Probability to drop in 100 runs is 86.7%
Probability to drop in 200 runs is 98.2%

A lot of failed runs does not increase your chance to get it next run, it's still 2% on each run no matter what your history is.
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Re: Ironfoe

by Dreez » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:21 pm

you explained it in an easier way^^
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Re: Ironfoe

by Alrik » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:56 pm

Always a luck thing.
There are Guys that killed Rend 1 time and got "Battleborn Bracers" (Around 16% dropchance)
I killed him 96. Times and didn't saw it drop once.
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Re: Ironfoe

by Soulxlock » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:57 pm

Mopar wrote:If the probability that it will drop on a single run is 2%, then:

Probability to drop in 20 runs is 33.2%
Probability to drop in 30 runs is 45.5%
Probability to drop in 60 runs is 70.2%
Probability to drop in 100 runs is 86.7%
Probability to drop in 200 runs is 98.2%

A lot of failed runs does not increase your chance to get it next run, it's still 2% on each run no matter what your history is.


And on run #201 it drops and a hunter ninjas it :lol:
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Re: Ironfoe

by Arucado » Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:28 pm

Alrik wrote:Always a luck thing.
There are Guys that killed Rend 1 time and got "Battleborn Bracers" (Around 16% dropchance)
I killed him 96. Times and didn't saw it drop once.


They drop very often.

But really took me so many times to get Truestrike shoulders
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Re: Ironfoe

by illutian » Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:45 pm

In short, make more JuJu offerings to RNG-esus. :P
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Re: Ironfoe

by Setup » Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:47 pm

Got mine on my first emp kill.

Amusingly, another one dropped on the next run, and it went to a warrior named Axe.
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Re: Ironfoe

by adizzle » Fri Sep 25, 2015 7:16 pm

Is probability no longer part of grade-school curriculum?
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