Nostalrius Begins - Quality wow vanilla realm (1.12)

How many tries does it got to drop?

I've done Emperor like 20-30 times nothing yet to see

http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=11684 (says 2%, so i think 60 trys would be enough)

2% drop chance = by averagy it drops every 50th run

the chance that it doesn't drop for X runs in a row still is quite high:

50 runs (0.98^50 = 0.364 -->): 36.4% chance
100 runs: 13.2 % chance

If the probability that it will drop on a single run is 2%, then:

Probability to drop in 20 runs is 33.2%
Probability to drop in 30 runs is 45.5%
Probability to drop in 60 runs is 70.2%
Probability to drop in 100 runs is 86.7%
Probability to drop in 200 runs is 98.2%

A lot of failed runs does not increase your chance to get it next run, it's still 2% on each run no matter what your history is.

you explained it in an easier way^^

Always a luck thing.
There are Guys that killed Rend 1 time and got "Battleborn Bracers" (Around 16% dropchance)
I killed him 96. Times and didn't saw it drop once.

Mopar wrote:If the probability that it will drop on a single run is 2%, then:

Probability to drop in 20 runs is 33.2%
Probability to drop in 30 runs is 45.5%
Probability to drop in 60 runs is 70.2%
Probability to drop in 100 runs is 86.7%
Probability to drop in 200 runs is 98.2%

A lot of failed runs does not increase your chance to get it next run, it's still 2% on each run no matter what your history is.

And on run #201 it drops and a hunter ninjas it

Alrik wrote:Always a luck thing.
There are Guys that killed Rend 1 time and got "Battleborn Bracers" (Around 16% dropchance)
I killed him 96. Times and didn't saw it drop once.

They drop very often.

But really took me so many times to get Truestrike shoulders

In short, make more JuJu offerings to RNG-esus.

Got mine on my first emp kill.

Amusingly, another one dropped on the next run, and it went to a warrior named Axe.

Is probability no longer part of grade-school curriculum?